The Texas Senate race between incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger Colin Allred is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched contests of the 2024 midterms. Recent polling data suggests that Cruz holds a slight advantage, though his lead has narrowed as the election nears. According to an Emerson College poll from October 18-21, Cruz is only ahead by about 1.5 percentage points, polling at 48.3% to Allred’s 46.8%, with a margin of error of ±3.4%
This slim lead indicates a tighter race than earlier in the year, highlighting a growing level of competitiveness and suggesting that both candidates have made significant inroads with Texas voters.
A University of Houston Hobby School poll conducted from late September to early October placed Cruz with a somewhat wider lead of 4 points, at 50% support compared to Allred’s 46%
Demographic divides in the state are contributing to these shifts: Cruz retains strong support among male voters, Baby Boomers, and those identifying as independents, while Allred has gained traction among women, Latino, and Black voters